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StillPurple
12-22-2007, 08:14 PM
I was talking to a guy I know who really, really studies the NFL. He made a point about young teams (and maybe all teams) not being "able to handle" the week off. He also said, in the playoffs, it actually is an advantage to play on the road, because there are fewer distractions. You can imagine Player A on the road, in the hotel room in a foreign city, with fewer distractions. Player B is at home, and maybe is sitting there in his living room with his friends, and maybe arguing with his wife, etc. Maybe he goes out to a local club, etc. I have never thought about it, but maybe being at home is not an advantage, but a disadvantage during the playoffs.

Any thoughts on that ?

Overlord
12-22-2007, 09:25 PM
"StillPurple" wrote:


I was talking to a guy I know who really, really studies the NFL. He made a point about young teams (and maybe all teams) not being "able to handle" the week off. He also said, in the playoffs, it actually is an advantage to play on the road, because there are fewer distractions.
...
Any thoughts on that ?


I disagree with this theory.
The numbers just don't back it up.
Here are the win/loss records of home teams in the playoffs since 2001:

(year, wild card, divisional, conference)
2006, 4-0, 2-2, 2-0
2005, 1-3, 2-2, 1-1
2004, 1-3, 4-0, 1-1
2003, 3-1, 3-1, 1-1
2002, 3-1, 4-0, 1-1
2001, 3-1, 3-1, 1-1

The total for each round is therefore 15-9 in the wildcard round, 18-6 in the divisional round, and 7-5 in the conference championship.
The total record for home teams is 40-20.
That's a pretty significant advantage for the home teams.

Of course, this doesn't really take into account how good each team is.
I think the two reasons the divisional round has the most notable advantage is the bye and also the talent disparity.
That is, many wild card teams are actually as good or better than some division winners that just happen to be in a terrible division.

But I think that overall you have to prefer playing at home.

ultravikingfan
12-22-2007, 09:28 PM
Guess you should talk to a different guy.
:D

NordicNed
12-22-2007, 09:50 PM
They don't call it home field advantage for nothing.... ;)

litlharsh
12-22-2007, 10:30 PM
Those homefield advantage stats are skewed because the better team (in record) is the one who plays at home. Theoretically, this argument might work for two identical teams, it just depends on the makeup and discipline of the organization.

mr.woo
12-22-2007, 10:50 PM
ur right. infact i bet right now tom brady is telling GQ how much hes loathing playing there playoff games at home this year because hes TOO comfortable there.

Frostbite
12-22-2007, 10:53 PM
Home field is a super advantage...especially in December and January. While we have proved we can win on the road...I for one am exstatic about playing the Redskins in the Metrodome instead of in Washington.

Cheers!

mr.woo
12-22-2007, 10:55 PM
another thought...was ur fried sober when he graced you with this little nugget of info?

Overlord
12-23-2007, 03:13 AM
"litlharsh" wrote:


Those homefield advantage stats are skewed because the better team (in record) is the one who plays at home. Theoretically, this argument might work for two identical teams, it just depends on the makeup and discipline of the organization.


Yeah, as I mentioned, it's not really possible (at least as I see it) to take into account the talent level of the two teams.
But I happen to think that most NFL teams are pretty evenly matched.
In terms of homefield advantage generally, discounting the playoffs, the records for the home team over recent years are:

2007 124-101
2006 136-120
2005 151-105
2004 145-111
2003 157-
99
2002 148-107-1

That's a total over almost six seasons of 861-643-1.
So, our recent regular season 4-3 homefield edge compared with a 2-1 playoff edge.

Interesting that there is also about a 4-3 edge in the first round, when the worst division champs from terrible divisions (see Seattle, Tampa Bay) are playing wildcard teams that may have better records against a tougher schedule.

In any event, while I think it's impossible to say exactly how much of an advantage playing at home is, and while it is different for each team, it seems clear that it is an advantage and not just an urban myth.