PDA

View Full Version : Vikings - Regression toward the mean



NodakPaul
11-13-2006, 10:50 AM
Regression toward the mean.

To those of us who have roots in statistics or psychology, this is a familiar term.
In fact, it is recognized as a statistical inevitability.
In a nutshell, it means that if somebody or something preforms better or worse than expected, the likelihood of them preforming closer to their expected ability the next time is increased.

I give you the 2006 Minnesota Vikings.

Before the season started, a common (non-purple tainted) prediction was to see the Vikings finish 9-7.
That was fair given the fact that we had a rookie coaching staff and a tough first half of the season.
After the loss of our only proven(?) WR, things looked grim.
Ending October with a 2-5 record was not a long shot.

But what happened?
With one game left in October, the Vikes were 4-2, and riding the coattails of a new look defense to a few very unlikely wins.
At once, the Vikes became a trendy pick to move up in the so-called power polls.
Fans, who previously had been hoping for a wild card birth, were now planning out playoff scenarios where we took the NFC North.
Suddenly everybody forgot the fact that Vikings were still a team with a rookie coaching staff and very little offensive talent.

And then statistics reared its ugly head.
Statistics predicted that the Vikings would begin to preform closer to their ability.
Statistics predicted that bonehead special teams plays and late fourth quarter turnovers that hand the game to the Vikes would slow down.
Statistics predicted that the Vikes would return to the form of a 9-7 team.
And we did.

Now after three losses fans are no longer talking about who we will face in the playoffs, but what changes we should make once we are eliminated from the playoffs.
I say don't sell the Vikes short just yet.


The fact of the matter is that the Vikings are neither as good as the first six games indicated, nor as bad as the last three would imply.
They are somewhere in the middle.
I still believe that we will finish our season with a winning record, even if that means we have to finish out the season 5-2 (definitely doable).
We will probably lose to another "beatable" team during that stretch, but also probably beat an unlikely team.


Whether or not that will be good enough to make a playoff run remains to be seen, althought statistically the odds aren't in our favor.
;)

cyviking
11-13-2006, 10:57 AM
I like your optimism but I think that this is a bad team and we are below the mean. There is potential for this team to come out and play good but generally it just isnt there anymore.

Ive gone from saying 10-6 after week 2, to 6-10 now. that makes me a sad panda

cajunvike
11-13-2006, 11:10 AM
And that road back to respectability starts TODAY...BUT if our team leaders don't believe that, we might as well hang it up now!

Prophet
11-13-2006, 11:15 AM
Yes, it can be visualized as a pendulum, with the assumption that the when the pendulum is idle the special teams, O, and D are all performing well.
It will happen, we just need some WD-40 and possibly a little bit of duct tape to make the proper repairs before the regression toward an acceptable mean is accomplished.

LuckyVike
11-13-2006, 11:21 AM
I agree that we'll get beat by a team that we should beat but I don't agree we'll beat a team that we shouldn't beat.
The team has lost its kick in a hurry.
I think we'll manage 8-8 which would be fine by me because that's what I expected entering the season.

Del Rio
11-13-2006, 11:22 AM
It really depends. Football is a sport played with heart and confidence. Statistics does not include the human element into the equation in this example. It seems the team is walking the tight rope of a total melt down. If they get it in their heads that they cannot win weather it be because of a QB or a system it is over.

I said two weeks ago that if we drop a few games that they will be looking for a scapegoat. I think we have arrived at that point in time.

cajunvike
11-13-2006, 11:46 AM
"LuckyVike" wrote:


I agree that we'll get beat by a team that we should beat but I don't agree we'll beat a team that we shouldn't beat.
The team has lost its kick in a hurry.
I think we'll manage 8-8 which would be fine by me because that's what I expected entering the season.


8-8 SUCKS!!!
It will NEVER be fine by me...we have the talent...we should be winning these games!!!
>:(

Zeus
11-13-2006, 01:20 PM
"Del" wrote:


It really depends. Football is a sport played with heart and confidence. Statistics does not include the human element into the equation in this example. It seems the team is walking the tight rope of a total melt down. If they get it in their heads that they cannot win weather it be because of a QB or a system it is over.

I said two weeks ago that if we drop a few games that they will be looking for a scapegoat. I think we have arrived at that point in time.


Did someone mention Fred Smoot?

=Z=

Del Rio
11-13-2006, 01:23 PM
"AWZeus" wrote:


"Del" wrote:


It really depends. Football is a sport played with heart and confidence. Statistics does not include the human element into the equation in this example. It seems the team is walking the tight rope of a total melt down. If they get it in their heads that they cannot win weather it be because of a QB or a system it is over.

I said two weeks ago that if we drop a few games that they will be looking for a scapegoat. I think we have arrived at that point in time.


Did someone mention Fred Smoot?

=Z=


There is a big difference between a scapegoat for the fans and one for the team.

Zeus
11-13-2006, 01:34 PM
"Del" wrote:


"AWZeus" wrote:


"Del" wrote:


It really depends. Football is a sport played with heart and confidence. Statistics does not include the human element into the equation in this example. It seems the team is walking the tight rope of a total melt down. If they get it in their heads that they cannot win weather it be because of a QB or a system it is over.

I said two weeks ago that if we drop a few games that they will be looking for a scapegoat. I think we have arrived at that point in time.


Did someone mention Fred Smoot?

=Z=


There is a big difference between a scapegoat for the fans and one for the team.


Well - teammates can certainly look to the poor tackling of Smoot (the man tries that shoulder-no arms tackle several times a game) and find some blame.
He's not the one getting beat for deep scores, sure.

I've just kinda gotten in the habit of blaming Smoot for everything which goes wrong in the world.


Suicide bomb in Baghdad?
Damn that Smoot!
Tornado rips through an Oklahoma town?
I know Smoot missed the tackle!
This stupid cough I've had for a week?
If only Smoot could cure me!

=Z=

Del Rio
11-13-2006, 01:39 PM
"AWZeus" wrote:


"Del" wrote:


"AWZeus" wrote:


"Del" wrote:


It really depends. Football is a sport played with heart and confidence. Statistics does not include the human element into the equation in this example. It seems the team is walking the tight rope of a total melt down. If they get it in their heads that they cannot win weather it be because of a QB or a system it is over.

I said two weeks ago that if we drop a few games that they will be looking for a scapegoat. I think we have arrived at that point in time.


Did someone mention Fred Smoot?

=Z=


There is a big difference between a scapegoat for the fans and one for the team.


Well - teammates can certainly look to the poor tackling of Smoot (the man tries that shoulder-no arms tackle several times a game) and find some blame.
He's not the one getting beat for deep scores, sure.

I've just kinda gotten in the habit of blaming Smoot for everything which goes wrong in the world.


Suicide bomb in Baghdad?
gol 'darnit that Smoot!
Tornado rips through an Oklahoma town?
I know Smoot missed the tackle!
This stupid cough I've had for a week?
If only Smoot could cure me!

=Z=


Yeah well that happens when you come in, get paid, cause problems, and do not live up to expectations. So I really can't feel sorry for the guy.

Fans can be won with one great play though, your teamates however take a whole lot more to win them over.

Zeus
11-13-2006, 01:40 PM
"Del" wrote:


Yeah well that happens when you come in, get paid, cause problems, and do not live up to expectations. So I really can't feel sorry for the guy.

Fans can be won with one great play though, your teamates however take a whole lot more to win them over.


You gotta wonder how someone like Antoine Winfield really feels about Smoot.
Winfield makes tackles, plays hard in run support and plays on the kick-off coverage.
Smoot plays soft patty-cake coverage and doesn't wrap up.

=Z=

Del Rio
11-13-2006, 01:50 PM
"AWZeus" wrote:


"Del" wrote:


Yeah well that happens when you come in, get paid, cause problems, and do not live up to expectations. So I really can't feel sorry for the guy.

Fans can be won with one great play though, your teamates however take a whole lot more to win them over.


You gotta wonder how someone like Antoine Winfield really feels about Smoot.
Winfield makes tackles, plays hard in run support and plays on the kick-off coverage.
Smoot plays soft patty-cake coverage and doesn't wrap up.

=Z=


I think that for a defensive player it is easier to find someone on the offense to project your failures on. I think players try to avoid dissing on the people they go to war with.

Marrdro
11-13-2006, 02:57 PM
Great Post Nodak.

I don't care how good our defense plays including Smoot.
If the offense can't stay on the field they will eventually miss a tackle/get burned.

Smoot is not our problem.

Nodak is correct.
Some of us (me included) got a bit caught up in the start of the team.
Having been a fan since birth (1961) I have seen the ups and downs over the years but for some reason this year hurts worst than most.


I for one am ready to admit that we need to give this staff our vote of confidence "Not matter how hard that is" and see what comes in the bigger scheme of themes.

I tell my mother-in-law every year that this will be the year we win it all.
Hopefully that will come true soon. ;D

bleedpurple
11-13-2006, 03:53 PM
I think this year is harder to take because of all the preseason acquisitions we had thinking we were gonna be better.
I still think we should have drafted a RB.
wasted a pic on ryan cook.
should have picked up another receiver in free agency.
and signed a viable other option at QB. (Brian Greesie)..

Now, with that aside, I think it has a lot to do with the penalties at critical times in the game... But good teams should be able to overcome most of those... We cannot..

Besides, we are soo F'n boring to watch, it hurts my feelings to know we had all that talent on offense just two years ago and now, have easily one of the worst in the league...

Would it hurt Brad Childress to mix it up a little?
What's up with all those checkdowns for 2 yards on 3rd down when we need 9?
Would it kill BJ to call an audible?

Would it hurt the coaching staff to incorporate Mewelde Moore a little bit more?

Maybe run some crossing routes or clearouts to get some guys open?

Throw the dang ball to J.Wiggins, atleast he can catch.

maybe give t.will a wr screen or a reverse to get him in the open field or some confidence back?

Maybe go 4wr's from time to time...

maybe the no-huddle to get some tempo and rythm going..

When we get in the red-zone, can we actually throw the ball in the endzone instead of 4 yards short with two defenders on them trying to run it in?

Maybe give T. Jackson a series or two in the game or even some reps during practice to see if he can play?
Could it really be that much worse?

take M. Johnson out or give him some te help especially on critical passing downs...

Fine M. Johnson for every ill advised false start/holding penalty termed as drive killers... For conduct detrimental to the team?

Stop praising C. Taylor as such a good back, because even though he has a lot of yards, he has a lot of carries and less the 95 yard td run, is averaging about 3.4 yards a carry...maybe even less...

Just a thought....

And also you must realize, if not for those defensive touchdowns(detroit), and that crazy ass play in the carolina game, we'd easily be 2 -7.... and don't mention the bears game (fumble aside), b/c if AW didn't run back that int. we'd never even been in the game...

Slade
11-13-2006, 03:57 PM
awww man this sux as my wife's family is coming from Wisconsin for turkey day. I'm gonna hear it........this is pooh

Del Rio
11-13-2006, 03:59 PM
And also you must realize, if not for those defensive touchdowns(detroit), and that crazy jiggly butt play in the carolina game, we'd easily be 2 -7.... and don't mention the bears game (fumble aside), b/c if AW didn't run back that int. we'd never even been in the game...

That can be said for our close losses too.

If not for that clip, if not for that illegal block, if not for that fumble. It doesn't swing that way.

bleedpurple
11-13-2006, 04:24 PM
"Del" wrote:


And also you must realize, if not for those defensive touchdowns(detroit), and that crazy jiggly butt play in the carolina game, we'd easily be 2 -7.... and don't mention the bears game (fumble aside), b/c if AW didn't run back that int. we'd never even been in the game...

That can be said for our close losses too.

If not for that clip, if not for that illegal block, if not for that fumble. It doesn't swing that way.



Which re-inforces my point!!
The offensive struggles of the year!
LIke I said, penalties are part of the game, but the offense must score more points...
We're not a very good football game and noone wanted to pay attention to the offenses struggles until we started loosing.
We've been poor at best since BJ started starting going back to last year.

ultravikingfan
11-13-2006, 04:36 PM
Good grief...that there be some complicated stuff NoDak!
;D

Great post!
Thats what we love here at PP.O...intelligent posts with content!

Rack 'em!