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Prophet
12-12-2005, 01:02 AM
Vikings vs Bears, after week 14.
What need to transpire for the Vikings to take the NFCN

The Vikings still have some work to do this season and the Bears are beginning to help out with their loss to the Steelers this weekend and will need to continue their help by losing to the Packers at Lambeau Field. Vikes for the NFCN title!

Bottom-line: If the Bears beat the visiting Falcons in week 15 and beat the Packers at Lambeau Field in week 16 then they own the NFCN title, regardless of what the Vikings do.

Yet to be determined

Ravens (Bears +1, Vikings ?)

The Bears already beat the Ravens and the Vikes will play their last away game against the Ravens.

Packers (Bears +1 and ?, Vikings +2)

The Vikings already swept the Packers and the Bears need to lose at Lambeau.

Steelers (Bears -1, Vikings ?)

The Steelers outplayed the Bears to a tune of 12 points, putting the Vikings within a game of the NFCN-leading Bears. The Vikings host the Steelers during week 15, a tough game but it is at home.

Falcons (Bears ?, Vikings -1)

The Bears go to the Falcons house, the Vikings have lost to the Falcons.

Vikings/Bears (Bears +1 and ?, Vikings -1 and ?)

The Bears have one game on the Vikings, but play in Minnesota for the season finale.

Remaining Games

BEARS (9-4)

Falcons (7-5)
@ Packers (2-10)
@ Vikings (7-5)

VIKINGS (8-5)

Steelers (7-5)
@ Ravens (4-8)
Bears (9-3)

The Bears have 2/3 road games left on their schedule and the Vikes have 2/3 home games left on their schedule. The Vikings are still looking to win out and are looking forward to watching the Bears lose to the Packers on Christmas day.

Tie-breakers
Thanks to josdin00 for the original summary.

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between clubs).

Obviously need the W against the Bears in week 17.
The best that can happen is that this ends in a tie. We have to beat the Bears in week 17.

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

Bears lose in week 17. This boils down to the Lions and Packers match-ups. The Bears must lose to the Packers at Lambeau Field in week 16, otherwise we would still be tied.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

The Bears and Vikings both played the Saints, Bengals, Browns, Panthers, Bucs, Ravens, Steelers, and Falcons.

The Vikings are 2-4 in these games, with 2 left to play (Ravens and Steelers). The best they can do is 4-4.

The Bears are 4-3, with 1 left to play (Falcons). The best they can do is 5-4, the worse is 4-4. The Vikings need to beat the Raven and Steelers and hope for the Bears to lose to the Falcons at home for a final record in common games of 4-4.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

This now accounts for the Vikings games against the Giants and the Rams, and the Bears games against the 49ers and the Redskins. The Vikings are 2-0 in these games and the Bears are 1-1. So the Vikings own the tiebreaker between uncommon opponents which comes into play in the overall record.

Disclaimer: I am too lazy to calculate the following scenarios.

5. Strength of victory.

6. Strength of schedule.

Games against uncommon opponents:

Bears (1-1): Redskins and 49ers

The Bears lost to the Redskins and scraped by with a victory at home against the 49ers.

Vikings (2-0): Giants and Rams

The Vikings dwarfed the Giants in their house and owned the Rams at home in week 14.

Games against common opponents

The rest of the games during the season were/will be played against the same opponents. Both teams swept the Lions and both teams beat the Saints. Nothing to write home about, but you can take those teams out of the equation.

Lions (Bears+2, Vikings +2)

The Bears beat the Lions by an average of 10 points more than the Vikings did. The Vikings gave up an average of 5.5 more points to the Lions then the Bears did.

Saints (Bears +1, Vikings +1)

The Vikings beat the Saints by 14 more points than the Bears did and they both gave up approximately the same number of points, Bears 16, Vikings 17.

Bengals (Bears -1, Vikings -1)

Both teams lost to the AFC North leading Bengals. The Vikings lost by 12 more points than the Bears and the Vikings gave up 13 more points to the Bengals than the Bears did.

Advantage Vikings

Browns (Bears -1, Vikings +1)

The Vikings beat the Browns by 12 pts and the Bears lost to the Browns by 10 points. The Vikings gave up 12 pts while the Bears gave up 20 pts.

Advantage Bears

Panthers (Bears +1, Vikings -1)

The Bears beat the Panthers by 10 while the Vikings lost by 25 points. The Vikings gave up 35 more points than the Bears did.

Bucs (Bears +1, Vikings -1)

The Bears beat the Bucs by 3 and the Vikings lost to the Bucs by 11. The Vikings gave up 14 more points than the Bears did.

In summary, the Vikings need to keep on winning and the Bears need to lose to the Falcons and Green Bay if the Vikings want the possibility of owning the NFCN in 2005. Taking the NFCN the first day of 2006 would be great way to start off the new year.

VikingsFan1989
12-12-2005, 01:59 AM
Nice analysis. I'm quite impressed.

Potus2028
12-12-2005, 02:17 AM
That's deep..
But basically in a nut shell it says vikes need wins while bears need losses...

Not that don't talk about that enough.. But that's a good analysis of why..

KY Vike
12-12-2005, 02:29 AM
Just hope that the bears lose one of their next 2 and that the vikes win out.

But as long as we look at each team on our schedule one game at a time, and don't worry about other teams, things should fall into place.

Besides, whens the last time an 11-5 team didn't make the playoffs in the NFC?

Vikes
12-12-2005, 05:02 AM
Vikes need this game against the Steelers bad. We need ATL to show up.

V-Unit
12-12-2005, 10:48 AM
Its crazy how the margin for error keeps on getting smaller even though we are winning. If we go 10-6 we still might not make the playoffs. That is scary considering we went 8-8 last year and made the postseason.

Articnv
12-12-2005, 11:22 AM
The bears d isnt the same with 2 of there startersinjuryed - they lost soem of that chemistery. if the dirty birds can bring there running game it will be a dirty bird win as both of the bears qbs (orton did last in the leaguge with a qb rating) and rex grossman (statisicly bad when he doisnt get a injuury ) key for the falcons is run attack the same way the steelers did and it will be money in the bank

IL-Vike
12-12-2005, 12:01 PM
I would say the Bears were unmasked for who they really are; a bunch of fakes. You don't know how sick I get, living here in Illinois, of hearing about the "monsters of the midway," "the best team in the NFL," "the great surprise of the year." I think the Bears were exposed by Pittsburgh today as the fakes they are!

VKG4LFE
12-12-2005, 02:06 PM
How about we just beat the steelers and then evaluate things. One game at a time people.

V4L
12-12-2005, 02:42 PM
Let's hope it is snowing in Lamblow when the Bears come.. Looks like they played bad in the snow against the Steelers!!


Win out Vikes and ur in! Wildcard or Division

IL-Vike
12-12-2005, 04:44 PM
"The Bears are starting to come to the realization that it may be time to switch quarterbacks. They need to score 17 points to win and if they aren't able to do that right now they won't be successful in the playoffs -- and may not even make the playoffs. If they think Kyle Orton has given them all he can, then that's not good enough and they should make the change. If they believe he has more to give them, then they should have him do more because this team needs to step up its offense to hold off the Vikings."
-- Eric Allen

Prophet
12-14-2005, 02:48 PM
Ron Mexico is suppose to be back this week.

Falcons | More on Vick to come Wednesday
Tue, 13 Dec 2005 13:55:30 -0800

Atlanta Falcons QB Michael Vick (ribs) will have his condition updated by the team Wednesday, Dec. 14. At this point, it does not look like Vick will practice much this week. Vick may be a gametime decision Sunday evening, Dec. 18. Vick may have to take a shot before the game to numb the pain. The hit Vick took Monday evening, Dec. 12, came under his flak jacket. Backup QB Matt Schaub will likely take all the first team reps in practice this week.

ultravikingfan
12-14-2005, 05:31 PM
"VKG4LFE" wrote:

How about we just beat the steelers and then evaluate things. One game at a time people.

Yeah right! :roll:

People are already picking who we will draft and who will be the starting QB next year.