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View Full Version : Predicting Second-Year Numbers for Minnesota Vikings QB Christian Ponder (BR Alert)



Marrdro
07-05-2012, 11:19 AM
I haven't put up a Bleacher Report article in a while. Think this one is interesting........(and should fire a few up that I posted it).

Predicting Second-Year Numbers for Minnesota Vikings QB Christian Ponder | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1247054-predicting-the-second-year-numbers-for-vikings-quarterback-christian-ponder)

C Mac D
07-05-2012, 11:37 AM
This is my prediction:

3,700 yards
24 TDs
18 INTs
58% completion

Marrdro
07-05-2012, 11:43 AM
This is my prediction:

3,700 yards
24 TDs
18 INTs
58% completion

I can live with that. I think his completion percentage will be closer to 60 or 61 though. Rationale is mostly related to Toby being used early and often as a check down combined with a bit more time being provided by the OL.

marshallvike
07-05-2012, 11:48 AM
I am not sure how anyone could possibly give up on Ponder after last season, or even think that it can be determined that he is a bust already. I personally believe he could be a winning QB in this league. (Depending on the ability of the coaching staff to develop his skills).

C Mac D
07-05-2012, 11:51 AM
I can live with that. I think his completion percentage will be closer to 60 or 61 though. Rationale is mostly related to Toby being used early and often as a check down combined with a bit more time being provided by the OL.

A 6-7% jump in completion percentage? That's a stretch in my opinion. Jackson's completion percentage was never as low as Ponder's was last season, and Jackson is not starting material in the NFL... not to mention his starting WRs were Troy Williamson and Bobby Wade.

Marrdro
07-05-2012, 02:55 PM
I am not sure how anyone could possibly give up on Ponder after last season, or even think that it can be determined that he is a bust already. I personally believe he could be a winning QB in this league. (Depending on the ability of the coaching staff to develop his skills).
I hear ya my friend.

Fans can be fickle. Ravens fans are tired of Flacco, Giants fans were ready to give up on Eli (he won them a SB each year), you'll start hearing garbage about Sanchez and even Ryan might get a bit of flack when the truth is, the only one that really hasn't continued to progress over their career is Sanchez, and I still think he should get about 2 more years before you start pulling him.

Marrdro
07-05-2012, 02:57 PM
A 6-7% jump in completion percentage? That's a stretch in my opinion. Jackson's completion percentage was never as low as Ponder's was last season, and Jackson is not starting material in the NFL... not to mention his starting WRs were Troy Williamson and Bobby Wade.
LOL, don't get me going on TJ. Thats for another thread.

I think we will see a jump like that though. Again, easy check downs to RB's, OL, WR's, you can also use the "Red Zone" percentages as an indicator he can do it.

In short, a stretch? Maybe, impossible, I don't think so.

C Mac D
07-05-2012, 03:10 PM
Interesting snipit:


Christian Ponder - Minnesota Vikings - 2012 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6433/christian-ponder)

After recently re-watching 2011 game tape, NFL Films guru Greg Cosell found himself "more intrigued" with Christian Ponder's "pure throwing ability."
Rotoworld's Evan Silva separately came to the same conclusion. Both analysts noted better than advertised arm strength, pocket composure, athleticism, and confidence in challenging quality cornerbacks.

NodakPaul
07-05-2012, 03:20 PM
This is my prediction:

3,700 yards
24 TDs
18 INTs
58% completion

I actually think that is a very realistic prediction, and I think that (depending on context) it would also show decent improvement over his rookie year.

midgensa
07-05-2012, 03:27 PM
I think CMAC is pretty dead on. Though I was a little lower on the spectrum on things. I was leaning more toward 3,500 yards, 22 TDs, 15 INTs, 58% or so. But I am banking on him missing a couple of games.

Either way ... I would not hate those numbers and would see them as reason to hope for a big jump in year 3.

JPPT1974
07-05-2012, 03:32 PM
Hopefully he will learn the system more in his second year. As he has a lot to learn. After a pretty bruising rookie year. Would hate to guess the numbers though.

C Mac D
07-05-2012, 04:55 PM
I think CMAC is pretty dead on.

Usually am.

midgensa
07-05-2012, 09:29 PM
Usually am.

That must be it.

kevoncox
07-06-2012, 01:47 AM
I just don't see the kid staying healthy. I love his athleticism but It's been a long time since a QB other that Brett put up the kind of numbers you guys are hoping for. Blame it on the line, the division or his affinity for being knocked out of games...He starts the season but only plays in about 12 full games.

2800 yds 17tds 17int
I'll give him a nice 60% completion ratio because he was normally accurate but has to adjust to the speed of the game.

midgensa
07-06-2012, 08:00 AM
I just don't see the kid staying healthy. I love his athleticism but It's been a long time since a QB other that Brett put up the kind of numbers you guys are hoping for. Blame it on the line, the division or his affinity for being knocked out of games...He starts the season but only plays in about 12 full games.

2800 yds 17tds 17int
I'll give him a nice 60% completion ratio because he was normally accurate but has to adjust to the speed of the game.

A long time since we have had average QB play? A long time since we got a 81.75 rating? Hell, you are predicting a whole 77.71 rating. Hardly very different.

Not like we are predicting big numbers.

I would say we had better play from Culpepper in 2004, Johnson in 2005, Frerotte and Jackson in 2008 and (obviously) Favre in 2009. I guess maybe you see those as a long time ago. But even if you got back to Culpepper, it was just 8 seasons ago.

I think these numbers are very realistic if he starts 14-16 games. As they are pretty similar to yours just prorated out.

singersp
07-06-2012, 12:41 PM
I am not sure how anyone could possibly give up on Ponder after last season, or even think that it can be determined that he is a bust already. I personally believe he could be a winning QB in this league. (Depending on the ability of the coaching staff to develop his skills).

+1

What I can't believe is how some people can claim Webb is nothing more than backup material after 3 NFL starts, but claim Ponder needs more time before he can be judged.

singersp
07-06-2012, 12:48 PM
This is my prediction:

3,700 yards
24 TDs
18 INTs
58% completion

I'm guessing closer to 2,800 yards, 18 TD's, 18 INT's, 58% completion.

NodakPaul
07-06-2012, 02:40 PM
+1

What I can't believe is how some people can claim Webb is nothing more than backup material after 3 NFL starts, but claim Ponder needs more time before he can be judged.

If only there was some kind of body of evidence that the coaches could look at other than starts when they evaluate players... something like a practice or maybe some kind of Organized Team Activities... but alas - the one and only thing the coaching staff and fans have to look at is starts. ;)

Yes, if we saw multiple back to back starts by Webb, we would have a larger body of evidence to judge him. But he isn't going to get multiple back to back starts. If and when the time comes that he does get to start more often, I reserve the option to reevaluate my opinion of him.

Ponder is going to see more starts - therefore the jury is still out on him IMHO.

C Mac D
07-06-2012, 02:52 PM
If only there was some kind of body of evidence that the coaches could look at other than starts when they evaluate players... something like a practice or maybe some kind of Organized Team Activities...

Iverson Practice! - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGDBR2L5kzI)

tastywaves
07-06-2012, 03:09 PM
+1

What I can't believe is how some people can claim Webb is nothing more than backup material after 3 NFL starts, but claim Ponder needs more time before he can be judged.

He was and is an experiment that has never been considered a true #1 candidate for QB. He was #3 on the depth chart that came in due to injury. I doubt he was ever considered more than a wildcat type option for us. In his limited playing time, he obviously showed the coaches enough to keep him on the roster as a QB, which was a big step for him. If he becomes our best option, than we will no doubt be out looking for another QB.

I enjoyed watching him play. I think he is a competitor and a strong athlete. I just didn't see anything that you can build a complex offense around. He is a less refined Vince Young, with a better head between his shoulders. If you refine him, than you might have a Vince Young, but that's the ceiling for him in my book.

kevoncox
07-06-2012, 08:16 PM
A long time since we have had average QB play? A long time since we got a 81.75 rating? Hell, you are predicting a whole 77.71 rating. Hardly very different.

Not like we are predicting big numbers.

I would say we had better play from Culpepper in 2004, Johnson in 2005, Frerotte and Jackson in 2008 and (obviously) Favre in 2009. I guess maybe you see those as a long time ago. But even if you got back to Culpepper, it was just 8 seasons ago.

I think these numbers are very realistic if he starts 14-16 games. As they are pretty similar to yours just prorated out.

You don't think 8 seasons and 5-6 different Qbs is a long time? 8 seasons?
I think 3000 yards is a magic number for a QB. If you can get pass that 3000 yard mark, you are having an ok season. Anything less than 3000 yards is a bad season.

Also I never said he was going to have a disaster of a season, I said he would be plagued by injuries and will miss games or be knocked out of others.

i_bleed_purple
07-06-2012, 09:44 PM
You don't think 8 seasons and 5-6 different Qbs is a long time? 8 seasons?
I think 3000 yards is a magic number for a QB. If you can get pass that 3000 yard mark, you are having an ok season. Anything less than 3000 yards is a bad season.

Also I never said he was going to have a disaster of a season, I said he would be plagued by injuries and will miss games or be knocked out of others.

Then how many bad seasons did Vick have before he got put away? (Hint: All of them)
Weren't you his #1 supporter then?

kevoncox
07-07-2012, 02:04 AM
Then how many bad seasons did Vick have before he got put away? (Hint: All of them)
Weren't you his #1 supporter then?

I am... and I believe he came back and got tossed into discussion for league MVP. I don't get what you are trying to prove.
You are trying to compare a rushing QB like Vick's passing figures? In his 2nd season Vick threw for 2900 yds AND rushed for 777.
You aren't going to get a rushing QB (not a mobile QB) to throw for 5000 yards and rush for 750. It doesn't work like that. Some of the rushing yards and attempts take yards and attempts away from the passing game. It would be better to combine those yards and take away approx 200 (average for a modern QB) for a complete picture.

Notice as his rushing attempts have gone down the passing numbers have gone up. What this has to do with Ponder, I don't know but I feel like arguing.

i_bleed_purple
07-07-2012, 08:32 AM
[QUOTE=kevoncox;1125571]
You aren't going to get a rushing QB (not a mobile QB) to throw for 5000 yards and rush for 750. It doesn't work like that. Some of the rushing yards and attempts take yards and attempts away from the passing game. It would be better to combine those yards and take away approx 200 (average for a modern QB) for a complete picture. /QUOTE]

Ah, right. Rushing QB's can't have impressive passing stats AND rushing stats:

2002: 3853 pass yards, 609 rush yards.
2004: 4717 pass yards, 406 rush yards.

League MVP discussion is a joke. All it means is you stood out. The reason Vick stood out is because he had a piss-poor career statwise as a QP, and came back under special circumstances to have a decent season. Not even great, but decent.

Point is, prior to going to Jail, he hasn't had a GOOD season as a QB. Last I checked, that's what he is, a QB. We don't have enough talent on this team that will allow Vick to take us to a superbowl. I'd still rather ride it out with Ponder and see what we have than go all-in for Vick and wind up with mid-round draft picks at best.

marshallvike
07-07-2012, 11:10 AM
I am... and I believe he came back and got tossed into discussion for league MVP. I don't get what you are trying to prove.
You are trying to compare a rushing QB like Vick's passing figures? In his 2nd season Vick threw for 2900 yds AND rushed for 777.
You aren't going to get a rushing QB (not a mobile QB) to throw for 5000 yards and rush for 750. It doesn't work like that. Some of the rushing yards and attempts take yards and attempts away from the passing game. It would be better to combine those yards and take away approx 200 (average for a modern QB) for a complete picture.

Notice as his rushing attempts have gone down the passing numbers have gone up. What this has to do with Ponder, I don't know but I feel like arguing.

made me laugh with that one.:)

singersp
07-07-2012, 11:17 AM
If only there was some kind of body of evidence that the coaches could look at other than starts when they evaluate players... something like a practice or maybe some kind of Organized Team Activities... but alas - the one and only thing the coaching staff and fans have to look at is starts. ;)

Yes, if we saw multiple back to back starts by Webb, we would have a larger body of evidence to judge him. But he isn't going to get multiple back to back starts. If and when the time comes that he does get to start more often, I reserve the option to reevaluate my opinion of him.

Ponder is going to see more starts - therefore the jury is still out on him IMHO.

Sure there are things like practice, OTA's & minicamps to evaluate players, but performance in practice is not the same thing as performance in real games. Hell, even preseason game performances are dismissed. How many times have we heard here after a QB had a good preseason showing that it's been rebuffed by many here as "It's only preseason"? Troy Williamson had some good OTA's & TC's. How did that work out.

But we aren't talking about coaches here, we are talking about fans who are calling players busts or nothing more than a viable back up after watching them play a handful of starts/regular season playing time. Fans who didn't watch those OTA's, those minicamps, those practices & at most watched a session or two of training camp practices.

What we have here is some fans claiming one player to be a bust/back up after a small body of evidence, but claiming another player with similar play to need more time to evaluate, even though they saw a larger body of evidence.


Yes, if we saw multiple back to back starts by Webb, we would have a larger body of evidence to judge him. But he isn't going to get multiple back to back starts. If and when the time comes that he does get to start more often, I reserve the option to reevaluate my opinion of him.

Ponder is going to see more starts - therefore the jury is still out on him IMHO.

So, since you've only seen a small body of evidence of Webb & you don't think he's going to get multiple back to back starts, you believe it's fair to label him nothing more than a viable backup, yet Ponder, whom you have seen a larger body of evidence of & will get more starts, you feel you can't label him until you see more playing time?

Marrdro
07-17-2012, 12:30 PM
Interesting snipit:

I've actually listened to both of them on the radio talk about things they missed in their first assessment of young Ponder.

I for one loved what I saw with the exception of a few throws especially when you watched for other attributes like pocket awareness, getting rattled etc.

I wonder what it would have been like if they would have just started him last year instead of wasting practice reps on D-nabb.

Marrdro
07-17-2012, 12:36 PM
I think CMAC is pretty dead on. Though I was a little lower on the spectrum on things. I was leaning more toward 3,500 yards, 22 TDs, 15 INTs, 58% or so. But I am banking on him missing a couple of games.

Either way ... I would not hate those numbers and would see them as reason to hope for a big jump in year 3.

Hey Midg, why do you think he will miss games this year?

I kindof think he will make it through the whole season.

Most of the time last year he seemed to hold it way to long and assumption on my part is that was because he had only one target and that target didn't always get open which resulted in him taking hits he really shouldn't have had to.

Granted, the OL will be better, but it will still be a work in progress, but I think wat will really help is (assumption on my part) Musgrove will move back to the use of more traditional player packages that will allow Ponder to have more options to throw to.

That alone will help him when it comes to being able to stay healthy.

Marrdro
07-17-2012, 12:41 PM
+1

What I can't believe is how some people can claim Webb is nothing more than backup material after 3 NFL starts, but claim Ponder needs more time before he can be judged.
Comeon my friend.

Even though I agree that it is way to soon to judge Webb, it is painfully obvious that young Webb is a runner rather than a thrower.

Besides, he was projected to be a WR at the next level. Not alot of us would say that was to far off of a projection. The only ones that would disagree with that are the ones that are convinced that just because he won a game or two with his feet he is now a true QB the organization should bank the future (and practice time) on.

Webb, will be a good backup QB who can squeak a win or two out for you if needed, but he wouldn't last a full year the way he plays either.