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View Full Version : The Myth of the Can't miss OL prospect



kevoncox
12-15-2011, 10:13 PM
I have gotten tired of hearing the same factless argument presented again and again that states that OL is the safest way to go in the NFL draft prospect. If anyone bothered to do any research on this subject, they would see it's not so clear cut. I believe that all positions are subjected to the same level of Boom/Bust potential. The difference is that teams are quicker to give up on WRs than OTs due to the need of cohesion on the line.

I believe that you rally cannot tell a bust from a boom for 3 years. Some players shine early and fad, others are late bloomers. For this reason, I will start with the 2009 nfl draft. I will go back to the 2003 draft and gauge the players drafted in the first and the bust boom rating.

2009
OT
Pick Name Bust/Boom
2 Jason Smith Bust
6 Andre Smith Bust
8 E. Monroe Bust
23 M. Oher Boom


WR
Pick Name Bust/Boom
7 Heyward-Bey Bust
10 Crabtree Bust
19 Maclin Boom
22 Harvin Boom
29 Nicks Boom
30 Britt Boom


2008
OT
Pick Name Bust/Boom
1 Jake Long Boom
12 Ryan Clady Boom
14 Chris WIlliams Bust
15 Branden Albert Bust
17 G. Cherilus Bust
21 Sam Baker Bust
26 D. Brown Boom

i_bleed_purple
12-16-2011, 12:56 AM
I have gotten tired of hearing the same factless argument presented again and again that states that OL is the safest way to go in the NFL draft prospect. If anyone bothered to do any research on this subject, they would see it's not so clear cut. I believe that all positions are subjected to the same level of Boom/Bust potential. The difference is that teams are quicker to give up on WRs than OTs due to the need of cohesion on the line.

I believe that you rally cannot tell a bust from a boom for 3 years. Some players shine early and fad, others are late bloomers. For this reason, I will start with the 2009 nfl draft. I will go back to the 2003 draft and gauge the players drafted in the first and the bust boom rating.

2009
OT
Pick Name Bust/Boom
2 Jason Smith Bust
6 Andre Smith Bust
8 E. Monroe Bust
23 M. Oher Boom


WR
Pick Name Bust/Boom
7 Heyward-Bey Bust
10 Crabtree Bust
19 Maclin Boom
22 Harvin Boom
29 Nicks Boom
30 Britt Boom


2008
OT
Pick Name Bust/Boom
1 Jake Long Boom
12 Ryan Clady Boom
14 Chris WIlliams Bust
15 Branden Albert Bust
17 G. Cherilus Bust
21 Sam Baker Bust
26 D. Brown Boom

How exactly do you define bust/boom? Guy like Sam Baker is definitely a decent OL, Even Cherilus isn't bad, especially considering he's a Lion. Oher is more of a Bust than Baker, especially considering all the media around him.

Purple Floyd
12-16-2011, 07:17 AM
Another thing to look at is those early 1st round tackles that have been great players don't necessarily mean the team is going anywhere. Both Cleveland with Joe Thomas and Miami with Jake Long are prime examples. Two LT's taken early that are quality players but obviously it didn't take the teams to another level.

jargomcfargo
12-16-2011, 11:26 AM
Another thing to look at is those early 1st round tackles that have been great players don't necessarily mean the team is going anywhere. Both Cleveland with Joe Thomas and Miami with Jake Long are prime examples. Two LT's taken early that are quality players but obviously it didn't take the teams to another level.

That is why I favor taking an impact player with the highest pick and looking for a very good lineman in the second, third , or fourth round. Waiting until the 5th, 6th, or final round seems like neglect.

tastywaves
12-16-2011, 12:12 PM
I think you have to stay true to your talent evaluations. If they are just the best LT in this draft, then maybe that person isn't worthy of a #3 pick, but if he grades out at the highest level irregardless of comparable draft prospects than a #3 pick may be warranted. Same with Claiborne, Blackmon,....

I believe that at every position in the NFL has only a few truly elite players and all of those positions can give a significant advantage if they truly are that much better than everyone else. With a #3 pick, that's what you should be able to get. The position is not as important to me as getting that truly elite player. Everyone around them is instantly upgraded.

kevoncox
12-16-2011, 04:31 PM
I think you have to stay true to your talent evaluations. If they are just the best LT in this draft, then maybe that person isn't worthy of a #3 pick, but if he grades out at the highest level irregardless of comparable draft prospects than a #3 pick may be warranted. Same with Claiborne, Blackmon,....

I believe that at every position in the NFL has only a few truly elite players and all of those positions can give a significant advantage if they truly are that much better than everyone else. With a #3 pick, that's what you should be able to get. The position is not as important to me as getting that truly elite player. Everyone around them is instantly upgraded.

Truth.com

kevoncox
12-16-2011, 04:40 PM
How exactly do you define bust/boom? Guy like Sam Baker is definitely a decent OL, Even Cherilus isn't bad, especially considering he's a Lion. Oher is more of a Bust than Baker, especially considering all the media around him.

Both guys almost got benched and eventual regained their starting jobs.

i_bleed_purple
12-16-2011, 04:45 PM
Both guys almost got benched and eventual regained their starting jobs.

Nobody's expecting they start hot day one, but both have developed into decent players. That's th epoint of drafting. It's ideal if they can be plugged in on day one, but that can't always happen.

jessejames09
12-16-2011, 05:18 PM
On the flip side how many viable LTs in the league today weren't drafted in rounds 1 or 2?

Eric Winston (3rd), Doug Free (4th) and Donald Penn (UDFA) are who come to mind for me, not exactly an elite list

Purple Floyd
12-16-2011, 10:14 PM
The LT's and where they were drafted from the last 20 SB winners.

2010- GB: Clifton 2nd round. 47th pick.
2009- NO: Bushrod 4th round 125th pick.
2008- Pitt: Starks 3rd round. 75th pick.
2007-Giants: Diehl 5th round. 150th pick.
2006-Indy: Glenn. 1st round 19th pick.
2005-Pitt: Smith 2nd round 38th pick.
2004-NE: Light 2nd round 48th pick.
2003- NE: Light 2nd round 48th pick.
2002- TB:Oben 3rd round 66th pick.
2001-NE: Light 2nd round 48th pick.
2000- Bal: Ogden 1st round 4th pick.
1999-St louis: Pace 1st round 1st pick.
1998-Denver:Jones UDFA
1997- Denver: Zimmerman 1st round3rd pick ( signed as a FA from the Vikings)
1996-GB: Michels 1st round. 27th pick.
1995-Dallas: Tuinei UDFA ( signed as a DT)
1994- SF: Wallace 4th round 101st pick.
1993- Dallas:Tuinei See above
1992- Dallas: tuinei See above
1991-Wash:Lachey( 1st round 12th pick ( Signed as a FA not drafted by)
1990-Giants: Elliott 2nd round36th pick.

So in looking at the data there are only 2 SB winners in the past 20 that had a top 4 LT that they drafted themselves. A few other teams acquired LT's that were drafted that high but they were later on in their careers. This was actually higher than I thought but it still goes with my assertion that LT's can certainly be gotten in the later rounds.

C Mac D
12-16-2011, 11:04 PM
The LT's and where they were drafted from the last 20 SB winners.

2010- GB: Clifton 2nd round. 47th pick.
2009- NO: Bushrod 4th round 125th pick.
2008- Pitt: Starks 3rd round. 75th pick.
2007-Giants: Diehl 5th round. 150th pick.
2006-Indy: Glenn. 1st round 19th pick.
2005-Pitt: Smith 2nd round 38th pick.
2004-NE: Light 2nd round 48th pick.
2003- NE: Light 2nd round 48th pick.
2002- TB:Oben 3rd round 66th pick.
2001-NE: Light 2nd round 48th pick.
2000- Bal: Ogden 1st round 4th pick.
1999-St louis: Pace 1st round 1st pick.
1998-Denver:Jones UDFA
1997- Denver: Zimmerman 1st round3rd pick ( signed as a FA from the Vikings)
1996-GB: Michels 1st round. 27th pick.
1995-Dallas: Tuinei UDFA ( signed as a DT)
1994- SF: Wallace 4th round 101st pick.
1993- Dallas:Tuinei See above
1992- Dallas: tuinei See above
1991-Wash:Lachey( 1st round 12th pick ( Signed as a FA not drafted by)
1990-Giants: Elliott 2nd round36th pick.

So in looking at the data there are only 2 SB winners in the past 20 that had a top 4 LT that they drafted themselves. A few other teams acquired LT's that were drafted that high but they were later on in their careers. This was actually higher than I thought but it still goes with my assertion that LT's can certainly be gotten in the later rounds.Awesome research PF. Good stuff.

Purple Floyd
12-17-2011, 06:58 AM
That is why I favor taking an impact player with the highest pick and looking for a very good lineman in the second, third , or fourth round. Waiting until the 5th, 6th, or final round seems like neglect.

Me too.

TheAnimal93
12-17-2011, 11:57 AM
Okay, which is more important to a team. A shutdown corner or a cant miss LT?

jargomcfargo
12-17-2011, 12:21 PM
Okay, which is more important to a team. A shutdown corner or a cant miss LT?
Should be able to find both in the first 36 picks, don't you think?

Freakout
12-17-2011, 01:21 PM
Should be able to find both in the first 36 picks, don't you think?

There are a lot of teams needing CB help and they just so happen to be picking at the tail end of round one.

kevoncox
12-17-2011, 01:46 PM
Nobody's expecting they start hot day one, but both have developed into decent players. That's th epoint of drafting. It's ideal if they can be plugged in on day one, but that can't always happen.

NO Baker got benched. He isn't starting.

TheAnimal93
12-17-2011, 02:10 PM
Should be able to find both in the first 36 picks, don't you think?

You would think. But somehow my confidence is waning from the past few years.

Chazz
12-17-2011, 06:30 PM
There is no such thing as a can't miss prospect.....that does not mean that we shouldn't take Kalil with our pick. There is all this love for Blackmon, but I just don't see it. Having one great WR is no way to run an offense anyway....we've done that and it didn't work out to well for us....Detroit has it, but it doesn't seem to be working for them as of late either. Green bay is full of 2nd-3rd round WR's and nobody can cover them. Not because any one of them is super great, they just are all very good and no defense is deep enough to cover them all...they always have a mismatch somewhere.

kevoncox
12-17-2011, 09:53 PM
There is no such thing as a can't miss prospect.....that does not mean that we shouldn't take Kalil with our pick. There is all this love for Blackmon, but I just don't see it. Having one great WR is no way to run an offense anyway....we've done that and it didn't work out to well for us....Detroit has it, but it doesn't seem to be working for them as of late either. Green bay is full of 2nd-3rd round WR's and nobody can cover them. Not because any one of them is super great, they just are all very good and no defense is deep enough to cover them all...they always have a mismatch somewhere.

I disagree. I'm not saying that Kalil isn't a can't miss prospect, I am simply providing facts to people that claim that going OL is safer than drafting any other position. It isn't. In this offseason, I would love us to sign Buffalo's OT, and Nicks away from NO. This way we can fix the draft to focus on our secondary, WRs and rebuilding our DT and LBS. A switch to the 3-4 will solve alot of our problems. We have 2 MLB in Brinkly and EJ and one OLB in Greenway. We have a bunch of DEs that are too big to play DE and too small to play DT.

Jennings can go and start on any team. He's a number 1. They also have a QB that is playing at a level never before seen in a QB. The issue at hand is we need more talent at the WR position. 2 more WRs are needed to get us at a level of excellence.

skum
12-17-2011, 10:52 PM
Even with research, thought and alot of thinking, i want Kalil.

You never know with guys like Blackmon and we have seen to many times this recivers coming out of college as stars and then completely bust.. Claiborne is a good player, but #2 is a bit to high for him in my mind.

Kalil fits a glaring need on this football team, both for the passing and running game and i think its the right selection all around.

If he doesnt work out at left tackle, you can often move them inside and still have a player producing, these kind of switches pretty much never happens at WR or CB and you see the player cut withing a few years.

The CB draft this year is also pretty deep, so is the WR and you can pick up some good players in the 2nd and 3rd, while outside of the first round.. the tackles starts to decline. So you could go with Claiborne or Blackmon in the first and then try and see if a guy like Mike Adams from Ohio State is there in the start of the second, but i doubt it very much.

Loadholt is getting torched all the time and he was a second round pick, so id rather not compromise with the talent in that spot.

kevoncox
12-17-2011, 11:15 PM
Again,
I agree that Kalil is the pick to take. However, we won't get him. We are going to beat the Bears and the Skins. and End up the 8th pick.



Even with research, thought and alot of thinking, i want Kalil.

You never know with guys like Blackmon and we have seen to many times this recivers coming out of college as stars and then completely bust.. Claiborne is a good player, but #2 is a bit to high for him in my mind.

Kalil fits a glaring need on this football team, both for the passing and running game and i think its the right selection all around.

If he doesnt work out at left tackle, you can often move them inside and still have a player producing, these kind of switches pretty much never happens at WR or CB and you see the player cut withing a few years.

The CB draft this year is also pretty deep, so is the WR and you can pick up some good players in the 2nd and 3rd, while outside of the first round.. the tackles starts to decline. So you could go with Claiborne or Blackmon in the first and then try and see if a guy like Mike Adams from Ohio State is there in the start of the second, but i doubt it very much.

Loadholt is getting torched all the time and he was a second round pick, so id rather not compromise with the talent in that spot.

skum
12-18-2011, 12:16 AM
Again,
I agree that Kalil is the pick to take. However, we won't get him. We are going to beat the Bears and the Skins. and End up the 8th pick.

Then im going with Riley Reiff from Iowa ;)..

MaxVike
12-18-2011, 08:00 AM
I think you have to stay true to your talent evaluations. If they are just the best LT in this draft, then maybe that person isn't worthy of a #3 pick, but if he grades out at the highest level irregardless of comparable draft prospects than a #3 pick may be warranted. Same with Claiborne, Blackmon,....

I believe that at every position in the NFL has only a few truly elite players and all of those positions can give a significant advantage if they truly are that much better than everyone else. With a #3 pick, that's what you should be able to get. The position is not as important to me as getting that truly elite player. Everyone around them is instantly upgraded.

Perfectly stated TW.

Purple Floyd
12-18-2011, 09:34 AM
I did some looking back at draft history and it dawned on me that the Packers turned their franchise around when they were in much the same situation as we are when they drafted Tony Mandarich with the 2nd pick in the draft.

Not sure how I forgot about that but to look back and see his impressive career and how it launched them into being the team they are today I am totally on board with taking a LT that high in the draft.

267

marshallvike
12-18-2011, 10:57 AM
Again,
I agree that Kalil is the pick to take. However, we won't get him. We are going to beat the Bears and the Skins. and End up the 8th pick.

I agree we will beat the Shins and Bores. I was convinced we were going to beat the Lions also. Hopefully we don't drop to eighth.

Freakout
12-18-2011, 11:35 AM
I agree we will beat the Shins and Bores. I was convinced we were going to beat the Lions also. Hopefully we don't drop to eighth.

I am not sure we beat either team. As long as our secondary blows and with Ponder throwing picks no win is guaranteed. I sadly could see Rex Grossman pick us apart.

kevoncox
12-18-2011, 11:52 AM
I am not sure we beat either team. As long as our secondary blows and with Ponder throwing picks no win is guaranteed. I sadly could see Rex Grossman pick us apart.
Blastphemy.

No seriously, Ponder's issue is not an issue.