View Full Version : What are the odds of you getting Super Bowl tix?

12-10-2009, 11:50 AM
I've done something like this in the past, but this year people might be more interested. And none of that "let's just hold on until they make it" crap and engage in a bit of levity in a fun season... ;)

If When the Vikings make it to the Super Bowl this year, what are the odds of you being selected in the Vikings Super Bowl Ticket lottery?

Well, first you need to know how the tickets are distributed. In a typical year, the NFL distributes the Super Bowl tickets like this:

17.5% of available tickets are awarded to the two participating teams.
Each of the remaining 29 teams receives 1.2% of the available tickets.
The NFL keeps 25% for corporate sponsors, charities, and other league related needs.
The Host Team receives about 4% of the stadium seats.
The remaining 1% is distributed to the general public through the NFL's annual Super Bowl Ticker Lottery.

Second, you need to know how the Vikings will distribute their tickets if they make the big game. The Season Ticket Holder handbook states that only season ticket holders who purchase their playoff tickets are eligible to be entered into the Vikings Super Bowl lottery. The number of chances that each season ticket holder is equal to the number of seats that they have X the number of years they have been a ticket holder.

OK, so let's do the math. First of all, Dolphin Stadium will have a capacity of 75,540 for the Super Bowl. So if the Vikings make it, that means that they will be awarded about 13,200 tickets. The Vikings will obviously make some available to players, staff, and family. I think a safe estimate would be around 3000 tickets, which is about 3 times what a non participating team uses. So let's say that there are about 10,000 tickets available for season ticket holders.

Now we have to make some assumptions. How many of the 64,500 seats at the Mall of America Field are owned by season ticket holders. My completely unscientific guess would be about 75%. If anyone has any better data, I would be happy to rework this. :) But for now, I am going with 75%, or 48,375. For odds purposed, I am going to bump that to 50,000 (that way I am underestimating each person's odds).

I have had tickets for 5 years, and I am in the lower level now. Again, completely unscientific, I am going to estimate that I have had tickets for longer than 40% of the ticket holder base. Since turnover is higher with new accounts, I am going to put the average number of years at 2 for those with less than me, and 15 for those with more than me. Doing some more quick math, that means that the average ticket holder has had tickets for 10.2 years (which is close to a figure I heard a few years ago). So if we take that number and multiply it by the number of season ticket holder seats (50K), we come up with 510000 entries in the Vikings Super Bowl Lottery.

Still with me? Good, because here comes the cool part.

To figure out what your odds are at winning the chance to purchase Super Bowl tickets, use the following formula:

Number of Tickets Available for the lottery = 10,000
Number of Entries in the lottery = 510,000

(Number of Tickets You Own) X (Number of Years You've Been A Owner) X 10,000 / 510,000

Here is mine:
2 X 5 X 10,000 / 510,000 = 19.6%, or a little worse than a 1 in 5 chance. :D

Now I just need the Vikings to get there!

EDIT: I updated the parts in red to give a more realistic (IMHO) estimate.

12-10-2009, 12:10 PM
Now thats some math. More proof your the smartest cat on this site.....

I know I hate to count the number of INT's or Sacks a player has and posting it. To worried I'll count wrong. :)

12-10-2009, 01:38 PM
I read somewhere that only 3500 are available to season ticket holders. I need to find where I read that.

12-10-2009, 03:23 PM
3500 sounds more like the amount that is made available to the host team.

12-10-2009, 03:27 PM
Nice math.. Too many numbers for my liking, though. lol

12-11-2009, 10:53 AM
Keep in mind that it is Minnesota and any instance that you or a team from Minny are in a lottery of any format you are bound to lose or atleast drop 3 draft spots.